« previous: This year's resolution: more living room | next: Open House attendance soars »
Monday, January 8, 2007
It's coming up to the boil, not the bubble
The market is heating up again. In the third quarter of 2006 median prices across the board in Manhattan are up 6%, to $767,000 according to a report from The Real Estate Board of NY released last month. The largest jumps were median prices in northern Manhattan and Upper East Side condos which were up 60% and 45% respectively. A 20% gain in co-op prices downtown, and a 13% increase on the Upper East Side were also noted. New York City is in a much stronger position than the nation overall.
"When comparing apartment prices to last year, overall median sales prices are up. We expect to see continued gains in the fourth quarter of 2006 and into 2007"
People are realizing that the bubble simply isn't bursting. The conventional wisdom is shifting toward an outlook that strong demand, coupled with rising supply, may yield moderate growth— not certain doom. Jonathan Miller, President and CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel summed it up in a recent interview on Bloomberg TV (see the video). He's also compiled the definitive list of press about the recent housing numbers here on his blog Matrix, which has become required daily reading for me. In a related story, Corcoran's President & CEO Pam Liebman on Bloomberg's After the Bell (see the video) noted that, "we've seen prices over $30 million, multiple times" in 2006. NYC is a global Real Estate Market; often a second or third home to some of the world's wealthiest people. But while the super luxury segment of the market may dazzle and capture the headlines, the apartments that the rest of us may afford seem to be doing fine as well. The REBNY report cited that apartments between 850 to 1500 square feet showed increases of 10.6% to 5.5% respectively below and above 1001 square feet. That covers the one to three bedroom apartments that most people buy. Properties over 1800 square feet did show a median price decline of 6.7% to 8.7%, but they also represent a smaller segment of the overall market. So while the news is not all rosy, the sky is hardly falling either. The activity in the market from where I stand on the front line has been significantly busier. I'm expecting the next round of numbers to show even more signals of a rebound.
Note: Yep, I'm playing a little catch-up here, but felt that the REBNY report from December would be of interest to readers. I was overwhelmed getting the blog launched back then. Happily it allowed me to incorporate some more recent items news too. I'll be doing my best to be timely, keep my day job, and deliver the best broker blog there is. Cheers— Peter
