Friday, April 20, 2007
real estate rollercoaster
This is one of the most creative visualizations I've seen regarding US home prices adjusted for inflation. Richard Hodge is responsible for this animated rollercoaster model, which graphs home values since 1890, based on figures developed by Yale Economist Robert Schiller. It's housing data as theatre. Only this time, instead of the sky falling, its you in the roller-coaster's seat (errr...almost). Strap in!
Mr. Hodge's experience inside the tech bubble of the late 90's, lead him to create a housing bubble blog called speculativebubble. I too found myself caught in the bursting tech bubble, but became a real estate broker instead, so our experiences have lead us to very different points of view. That bubble was caused largely by overreaching, half-baked, 'tech strategies'. In most cases the disintermediation of brick and mortar businesses with virtual ones, did not happen. Those bubbly ideas had little real value upon closer examination. Hence the sudden pop. It looks like the brick and mortar are stronger than some care to admit; and after all isn't real estate the very definition of a brick and mortar business? Hat's off to Doug Heddings at True Gotham who pointed to this while I was recently on vacation in Japan.