I heard a story about a coop Board turn down last week, when I went out with a customer to look at some Greenwich Village apartments. We dropped by to see a "Gold Coast" property off Fifth Avenue near Washington Square Park, which had just come back on the market. It was a lovely place, in a converted townhouse, with just five units in the building. As we were about to leave, I asked the listing agent why the apartment had come back on the market. It could be for any number of reasons like the buyer exercising a mortgage contingency, or an inspection problem — both of which seemed unlikely by the condition of the building, and the fact that the co-op required a 50% down-payment, which most banks would see as a low risk, loan to value ratio on lending. It turns out that the prospective buyers were the parents of the person whom would be the occupant/tenant of the apartment. The Board's due diligence process included online research of the tenant. It revealed a 'Facebook' page for the potential occupant which included pictures that raised an eyebrow with some the Board members. While I'm not privy to knowing exactly what the problem was, it seems reasonable that some owners became worried about loud parties and late night noise. It projected a questionable image, and the Coop Board turned down the application.

Fair? Its hard to say. Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. Sometimes pictures lie. But the secret to passing a Board's scrutiny is to appear completely uncontroversial. It's a simple lesson, in today's wired world of social networks, potential buyers and their agents, need to review the online presence of the applicants, and edit where needed. As an agent, I go through a very exacting process in preparing financial data and references for Board packages; guiding customers through the coop approval process. That can all be undone today by a few badly considered photos from a New Years party.

I was surprised to find out that my Christmas postcard from 2004 was being auctioned on ebay, by an outfit named Sensual World, "Purveyors of sensual items from around the world". While I fail to see how exactly I fit in there, I'm somewhat flattered nonetheless. These were both mailed out and distributed on postcard ad racks around downtown Manhattan that year. It was free then, but can be yours today for about three bucks. I've always focused on developing a brand and bringing attention to my practice, and my clients listings, through design. While this is a truly minor recognition of my design work, it gave me a great excuse to recycle this image, and take a moment to wish you all a very happy holiday season!

» download snapshot (544kb) I'm presenting some data published here by Corcoran based on November contracts signed, which leads the sold and closed metrics by 60 to 90 days. This is telling if you are thinking about bringing a home onto the market, or buying one in the first half of 2010. I've met several new customers who will be spending bonus money in the first quarter, but others have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what was going to happen before plunking down hard earned, and recently recovered savings. I can feel the momentum to a busy first quarter of the year starting already. It was not unusual to see multiple bids on properly priced homes this December.

In truth, we've seen good activity in the final quarter of 2009. A year ago, amid the uncertainty of the financial crisis, sales activity had slowed to a trickle. This chart shows the number of Manhattan contracts signed market-wide since November of 2007 for some context. Today they are up 193% since January, largely because of improved opportunities for buyers, and consumer sentiment generally feeling better.

click on the chart to enlarge

The sales activity has a roughly inverse relationship to the chart below, which shows the supply side. A year ago we began to see peaking inventories of apartments. It has today decreased by 25% since November 2008. While there is some "shadow inventory" of new developments (unlisted/unsold) unaccounted for in these metrics; the pipeline of newly developed units, has virtually been turned off. Developers accepted the new market reality and began improving prices as the year continued.

click on the chart to enlarge

november 2009 manhattan condo and coop prices

Condos gained in pricing in November compared to a month earlier, amidst strengthening demand for larger homes. The number of contracts signed was roughly consistent with October and about double a year earlier. Coops sales activity was also up a significant 173% over November 2008. Median sale prices increased 18% over the month prior and 12% year over year. They are selling quicker too. The increased activity is due to pent up demand from people needing to trade up to larger units and improved pricing that brings them in line with demand.

If we continue to see the inventory of available apartments going down, and buyer activity remain as strong, I believe that we will be hitting real price equilibrium soon. On a micro scale I know that I've seen pricing in some larger coop buildings actually increasing already off their lows of the year.

click on the charts below to enlarge

» download the manhattan november real estate market snapshot (544 kb)
» download the Q3 2009 manhattan market report (3.9 mb)

So for those of you who've been wondering where I've been, let me start by saying I'm back to blogging. I've been managing my time a bit differently recently for both professional and personal reasons, and took a momentary break from blogging this summer. I've actually had a busy time of working, and closed a good number of deals. I made a recommitment to my own health. I guess leaner times call for leaner brokers. I had been about 100 lbs. overweight for a number of years. I said to my doctor a year ago that if I didn't do something about my weight, I felt like I was going to die. With his best Borscht Belt style delivery he told me, "Peter, I have bad news for you. Your gonna die sooner or later anyway". Which actually kinda put it in perspective for me. I decided that my quality of life, longevity, and eight year old daughter, were important enough reasons to make a change. Since the beginning of the year I've now lost 75 lbs and still counting downward.

This has meant putting my life back into balance. That looks like spending much more time exercising, planning my nutrition, and taking the time to sit down and have a proper meal— rather than grabbing a slice while running to an appointment. In this marketplace, the deals take longer and require even more diligence to close too. I remember that when I worked at Newsweek as their Director of Covers, the top editors would always take the time, even when we were on a Friday night publishing deadline, to leave the building and sit down to dinner. The important take away for me being that time management is what we make it. Life will run you, if you don't run it. Focusing on the areas of my life that were demanding my immediate attention was the right thing to do for me, and have lead to new opportunities and accomplishments.

I've added quite a lot to my days. Rather than using a ghost writer, or posting something half-baked, I just went quiet for a little while. It's funny, but when one blogs, there is a kind of self-imposed tension to keep up with it. The real estate market is still here, and I will be continuing to bring you my perspective on it. This week I'm learning how to work my posting back into my routine. I'm feeling great and excited to be back to blogging. I posted the latest report on the Manhattan real estate market (3.9 mb) for download in the left column, and have a commentary forthcoming. Stay tuned.

I learned this week that I have been once again ranked in the top 2% of my company's real estate agents nationally! NRT is the parent company of The Corcoran Group, CitiHabitats, Sothbey's Real Estate, Coldwell Banker, and Century 21— with over 54,000 agents. It is always gratifying to be recognized for producing results, but this citation is even a bit sweeter. The point is made in the testimonial letter below by NRT President and CEO Bruce Zipf; "Your achievement is even more impressive given that your high-level of production occurred during what many now feel was the most challenging quarter of our professional lifetime. You have truly proven that you are the best of the best." Indeed, since the financial crisis blew up at the end of 2008, I've been cited consistently as a top producer, and as a member of Corcoran's elite 'Multi-Million Dollar Club'.

click image to read the testimonial letter

Negative stories about the housing market are still abundant, even as glimpses that the worst may be over, begin to show. I believe that this accomplishment shows that while the marketplace sets up a general operating environment, the details of any individual deal are subject to professional knowledge of a much more granular nature. One should certainly consider what the Case-Shiller Index lumps together about single family home prices in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut; but what does that mean when you want to buy a condo on Reade Street in Tribeca? Success is always possible.

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