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market reports: researched knowledge about real estate

February 12, 2013

Market Snapshot: January 2013

monthly snapshotNo surprise that even with a seasonal Q1 bump in inventory, the number of apartments and lofts available for sale in Manhattan, remains 23% tighter than at this time in 2012. This can be frustrating for buyers who have few choices in any particular size category. It can be good news for sellers who can deal with largely recovered or appreciating values; and shorter times on the market. I would love to list your property today!

Download the full Manhattan Snapshot as a PDF »
Download the full Brooklyn Snapshot as a PDF »

Market Snapshots are compiled from both Corcoran's proprietary information regarding contracts signed, and public sales records. Excerpt below:
Marketwide inventory increased slightly in January due to the typical seasonal increase in new listings at the start of the new year. Nevertheless, inventory remains 23% lower than this time last year while contract activity increased by 44% compared to last January. This strong demand and limited supply has pushed pricing up compared to last year. Average price per square foot increased in every bedroom category for both condos and co-ops leading to an overall 13% gain for condos and a 22% gain for co-ops compared to January 2012. Limited supply has also constricted the average number of days on market and discounts from last ask to sale.

January 13, 2013

seller's market

market report
download the latest report
2013 opens with a strong market for sellers. The Manhattan market has clearly recovered. Available housing inventory in the Fourth Quarter of 2012 logged its seventh consecutive year-over-year decrease, reaching its lowest point in seven years.  With such limited choices available to them, prices have continued to rise: median price is now $827,000 (up 8% versus Q4 2011) and price per square foot is $1076 (up 3% versus Q4 2011). That means that demand is far exceeding available inventory. I have buyers waiting to see the right home in almost every size category.
 
Apartment and loft sellers that have asked me for a market opinion recently, have been surprised at how robustly the market has turned around. Luxury properties are up 7% year over year. Downtown buyers found coops to be very desirable homes, driving pricing up year over year in one bedroom (+4%), two bedroom (+20%) and three bedroom (+54%) categories. I also market townhouses and live/work, mixed-use buildings, as homes and investments. I have simply never seen demand higher for them in Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn. I help sellers acheive maximum value for their properties. 

 

The overview is in Corcoran's current Market Report. Download your copy here. How does it apply to your property? Ask me for a free analysis of what your apartment, loft, townhouse, or building is worth. That answer may surprise you.
 

February 6, 2012

A stable Manhattan real estate market

Here is the latest real estate sales data in the forth quarter 2011 report on the Manhattan market. Download the full report here, with a breakdown of by sub-markets. Here's my take.

Corcoran Fourth Quarter 2011 Real Estate Market Report
Condo inventory shrinks, coops are where the deals are
Corcoran Manhattan market reportSales began to slow toward the end of 2011, however in prime downtown markets like Chelsea, the Village, and Tribeca, there was a distinct lack of quality inventory in almost all sized homes. Indeed, market wide Q4 inventory shrank by about 6% from Q3 to 8440 units on the market. Way down from 12,300 available for sale back at the market's bottom in early 2009. In my opinion, the inventory trending is one of the best indicators of where prices are going. Shrinking inventory means prices increase. Some of this was due to the lack of production of new condos, because of the market forces affecting the development pipeline. It is simply very difficult for builders to get construction financing right now. This also has created different trends for coops and condominiums, which are far more scarce. So it seems as though the boom years' inventory bump, has been largely absorbed by the market, and has not been replaced. According to Corcoran's report, condo inventory decreased 11% from a year ago, but in contrast, co-op availability remained even. I personally felt that my coop buyers got very good deals last year because of this. If you are looking for a primary residence, this is where the values are most likely to be found.
Past five years of Manhattan inventory
click image to enlarge
Manhattan real estate inventory absorption Q4 2011
At the end of Fourth Quarter 2011, there were 8,440 units listed market-wide, a 6% decline from Third Quarter 2011 and a 4% decrease from Fourth Quarter 2010. The decrease in total inventory from last year is a net byproduct of condo inventory having decreased 11% while co-op availability remained even. New listings added during the quarter were 27% lower than Fourth Quarter 2010 and 16% lower than Third Quarter 2011. Since reaching its peak in First Quarter 2009, listed inventory has dropped 32%.

I've observed that the downward pressure on many coop apartments continues. For example, median prices on the upper east side were down across the board year over year. I'm not speaking of Park Avenue mansions (which actually accounted for the top 4 sales last quarter, the highest at $27 million); but there is a glut of less distinguished post-war units out there, with high barriers to entry like down payment requirements on purchases of 50% or more. Buyers sometimes seemed hesitant to plunk down 50% equity to buy into these mid-twentieth century buildings, often without in-unit laundries, and limited, if any amenities, beyond a doorman and maintenance staff. These units often require updating as well. A $1 million coop apartment, requiring a 50% down payment of $500K, completes with more recently developed condos where 20% to 25% down is possible. That means the same down payment can leverage a $2 million to $2.5 million purchase, often with amenities like fitness centers, spas, kid's playrooms, private lounges, even screening rooms. Coop boards restrictive financial requirements cut down on the potential buyer pool, and result in lower selling prices. Many folks don't want to buy into mom and dad's coop, choosing newer developments, and/or early resales of them. They are taking advantage of the incredibly low cost of borrowing, and leaving themselves more capital to invest in other ways; and I believe acquiring a very marketable asset in the future.

In January, the market started coming out of it's post-holiday season doldrums. We'll see a small bump in inventory as the first quarter selling season begins, but I don't foresee a huge change. If your thinking of buying or selling, the market feels really well balanced for you to succeed. Realistic exceptions vary from neighborhood to neighborhood. If you need to sell in order to buy, the real trick is to tap into the experience that your broker brings to make that a smooth transition. It doesn't need to cost you extra financing, or holding two properties for a length of time. What questions do you have about your next home?

Download the full Q4 2011 Manhattan Market Report »


February 14, 2011

January 2011 Manhattan real estate market report

Corcoran Manhattan market reportHere are the latest metrics on contracts signed in January 2011 at the corcoran group. The condo market really started coming back to life in January with price per square foot numbers higher, and larger units selling. Frankly, business has been brisk for right-priced prime Manhattan real estate.

january 2011 manhattan real estate market report

January 7, 2011

What's selling now?

Corcoran Manhattan market reportCorcoran just released the Fourth Quarter 2010 Report on the Manhattan Residential Real Estate Market. You can download the complete report here for free. It breaks down the neighborhood trends for coops and condos, with a look at luxury homes, lofts, and townhouses too. In 2010, buyers took advantage of lower interest rates and soft prices, to trade-up into larger units, and move from rental properties to ownership. The residential luxury market (the highest priced 10% of apartment sales) is on the rebound now in most categories, by both sales volume and value. This market is less sensitive to interest rates, and may be reacting more to renewed optimism— a good sign overall. Additionally, in the commercial investment sales market, companies like Massey Knakal are reporting market wide sales "up substantially over 2009 levels". Some of that represents distressed assets being sold off, but it also means that capital is being deployed again, and the market is finding a new normal. More signs that the recovery is well underway.

It's fair to say that 2010 was a bit of a roller coaster too, with very uneven distribution of sales volume; more properties traded in the second half of the year; summertime was slower than in 2009. I think that market demand is basically holding steady, but have often described the marketplace to colleagues as being "fickle" in 2010.Year over year prices trended upward, yet Q4 compared to Q3 of 2010, showed a mixed bag, with downward pressure on prices evident in some categories. The full report shows the details.

That being said, residential home buyers are expecting better value, being choosy, and taking longer to negotiate & close. Sellers who are realistic on pricing and delivering on value, have had good experiences in making deals. That means a good property, priced well, prepared professionally for showing, and with superior marketing to potential buyers. Brokers widely reported over-bidding on properties where these factors come together, bringing offers to a tipping point.

what's your home worth?
As interesting as the latest sales metrics may be, they are broad indicators of trends. Every property is unique, and can perform quite differently in the marketplace. My job is to help my clients price their homes right, and close their deals. If you're thinking about moving, I can provide an analysis of your specific home's value, free for the asking. Send an email or call (212) 444-7844 for more information. Here are some highlights from the Q4 2010 Corcoran Report:
whats popular? downtown homes still lead the market

NYC apartment sales by neighborhood Q4 2010

Downtown Manhattan remained very desirable. Neighborhoods like the Village, Soho and Tribeca seemed to muster really consistent demand all year. However, overall the Downtown neighborhoods below 34th Street, decreased slightly in market share from last quarter, and one year ago. Upper East Side sales also decreased in market share, from 24% a year ago, to 21%. In contrast, the West Side and Midtown East increased their market share to 22% and 11%, respectively.

buyers trade-up in size, and into home ownership

NYC apartment size sales Q4 2010

Buyers are taking advantage of lower prices and lower mortgage rates. Trading up to three bedrooms, and moving from rentals into a first purchase, are trends I've noticed— confirmed by the year over year numbers. Studios decreased in market share to 12% from 15% a year ago, while One-bedrooms increased to nearly 40% of the market, up from 36% a year ago. Two-bedrooms decreased slightly from 34% a year ago, while three-bedroom and larger residences increased to 17% of the market, up from 15% a year ago.

the luxury market softly rebounds
click charts to zoom in manhattan luxury homes

Manhattan’s luxury market is defined as the highest priced 10% of all co-op and condo sales. These are some of the most expensive homes in the world, and the return of the luxury market is a sign of confidence and strength in the future. These are buyers who are placing substantial equity into their property purchases. Sales volume was up in the second half of the year. Compared to a year ago, median price increased 8% to $4 million while average price per square foot decreased 5% which is attributable to larger apartments trading. Versus Third Quarter 2010, median price declined 2% while average price per square foot increased 6%, to $1,904. Luxury resale condos increased 18% in median price and 9% in average price per square foot versus a year ago while luxury co-ops increased 22% in median price with no change in average price per square foot.

Q4_2010 corcoran report

get the total picture of 2010

Download the complete Corcoran Report on the Manhattan Real Estate Market here. It is compiled with closed transaction info from NYC records with the help of Propertyshark, and Corcoran's own experience as the city's largest residential listing broker. It uses market-wide data based on transactions that closed in the Fourth Quarter 2010 (October 1 through December 31) and compares them to closings that took place last quarter and during the same quarter one year ago. I'd be pleased to answer any questions or comments you may have.

download: fourth quarter 2010 market report

July 12, 2010

Downtown Manhattan sells most in Q2 2010

One of the graphs that I find informative is this one from the Second Quarter 2010 Corcoran Report on the Manhattan Real Estate Market. Downtown Manhattan, comprised of neighborhoods below 34th Street, accumulated the largest percentage of sales this quarter with 35%, a small increase in market share from First Quarter 2010. The West Side accounted for 21% of sales while the East Side accrued 24%. One-bedroom residences accounted for the highest percentage of sales during Second Quarter 2010, with...

continued »

May 1, 2010

Manhattan sees dramatically increased home sales

The big news is that so far this year, sales volume could be as much as 70% higher than last year by current estimates. I've been personally involved in a couple of bidding wars in recent weeks. Correctly priced and marketed properties are meeting buyers, who are acting now without hesitation.

continued »

February 19, 2010

How negotiable is that apartment?

Corcoran just released some additional data on the market place in January, to that which I presented in the most recent . A key trend is average deal negotiability from last asking price, and it is shrinking in every price category, compared with a year earlier. In January 2010, our contracts data signed indicated a range of negotiability between 5% to 7%.

continued »

February 8, 2010

Manhattan Residential Market Snapshot January 2010

Marketwide sales activity slowed in January compared to December 2009. However, condominium sales are up 110% and co-op sales are up 118% versus January 2009. As is typical at this time of year, listed available inventory increased slightly this month as sellers relist their apartments in hopes of striking a deal after the holiday season. Available inventory is still far below levels seen a year ago. In January, the pricing disparity between buyers and sellers continued to close. The discounts this month were among the mildest in over a year. Buyers are typically able to obtain larger discounts for more expensive properties.

continued »

January 17, 2010

manhattan market equilibrium?

Has the Manhattan residential real estate market found its footing again? Corcoran's entire Manhattan market report is available for download here now. It has in-depth metrics on sales activity in the fourth quarter of 2009 and compares them to a year earlier.

continued »

December 16, 2009

A snapshot of the Manhattan Real Estate Market today

I'm presenting some data published here by Corcoran based on November contract signed data which lead the sold and closed metrics by 60 to 90 days. This is more telling if you are thinking about bringing a home onto the market, or buying one in the first half of 2010.

continued »

May 25, 2009

Summertime to negotiate your best deal?

In Manhattan, as the weather heats up, the market traditionally cools off a little. That creates opportunities for buyers as offers are often a bit more scarce, and traffic slows down, due to vacations and the weekend migration out to the east end of Long Island. Summertime could be the best time in several years to negotiate for a new home. Conditions for buyers are ideal.

continued »

May 18, 2009

April 2009 Manhattan Market Snapshot

The number of signed contracts for both condominiums and co-ops increased in April from March, but continued to show price declines in most categories from a year ago. Inventory appears to be showing signs of stabilizing due as the New York City Winter/Spring market winds down and the new development pipeline slows to a trickle. Buyers took advantage of the market conditions, scooping up deals at significant price reductions from a year ago. I'll have a new post on negotiability soon, but for now, here's the April 2009 snapshot of the Manhattan apartment market.

continued »

April 27, 2009

March 2009 Real Estate Sales Snapshot of Manhattan

Wow, it seems like just a moment ago I posted the first quarter market report of sold and closed properties. Today I'm posting a new set of metrics for last month's deals providing readers with an up-to-the-minute snapshot of the Manhattan marketplace now. Unlike the closed sales data which typically lags the market by 90 days or more, this data is based on Corcoran's proprietary data of deals which went to contract in arms length negotiations in the month of March.

continued »

April 7, 2009

First quarter 2009 Manhattan Market report shows a slow down in transactions and re-sale price declines of 8%

It shows both median apartment prices and average price per square foot down 8% from a year earlier. However the market snapshot we published last month on contracts signed in the same period paints a different picture. The reason is that the sold & closed deal figures, show the market negotiated three or four months prior. As 2009 has unfolded, we have noticed even greater price reductions in the market and more negotiability than is reflected in the Corcoran Report; in February, sellers lowered their asking prices by an average of 9% and negotiated another 10% from the revised ask before a contract was signed. The aggregate difference between original listing price and selling price in February was somewhere around -19%; it was about -4% in 2008.

continued »

March 13, 2009

A snapshot of today's Manhattan residential market

This week The Corcoran Group issued an update to last quarter's data with a 'Market Snapshot' based on Corcoran's contract signed data in Manhattan, in January and February of 2009. It helps to give us some insight on what is actually happening in the market at the moment. The snapshot confirms that it is a good time to be a buyer in Manhattan; and that when pricing hits a certain perception of value, deals will get done.

continued »

January 7, 2009

Fourth Quarter 2008 Manhattan Real Estate Market Report

I'll be posting some excerpts from the Fourth Quarter 2008 Corcoran Report soon, but you can download the complete report as a PDF right now. It's a look at the current state of the Manhattan residential real estate market. This report compares data based on deals that closed in 4Q 2008 (October 1 through December 31) with that of 4Q 2007.

continued »

October 6, 2008

Corcoran's Manhattan Real Estate report shows price increases, but a more challenging market ahead

The third quarter Corcoran Report on the Manhattan Real Estate Market shows that the overall median price of Manhattan apartments are up 10% since a year ago as Manhattan real estate continued to out perform the national housing and capital markets. Yet, the report also tells us about rising inventory and slowing property sales, giving us important information to adjust buying and selling strategies to meet what clearly seems to be a changing economic landscape. Download your copy of the third quarter 2008 Corcoran Report here, and read on for my take on how to best use this data.

continued »

July 3, 2008

Manhattan real estate market trends report

The Corcoran Group has just released the second quarter 2008 sales figures on the Manhattan real estate market. Today I'm posting a market wide snapshot and you can download the full Q2 2008 Corcoran Report [1.3mb pdf] here too. The big picture is that the market did have strong gains with the overall median price increasing 13%. Co-op sales posted across the board gains too. In my opinion co-ops are the leading indicator of the overall health of the Manhattan real estate market, as they represents about 80% of the city's housing inventory being traded by individual owners, at arms-length. By that standard the housing market here seems to be holding its own, even as the nation experiences an unprecedented correction in values.

continued »

May 19, 2008

Is it a good time to buy in Tribeca?

s some of you know, I've been a Tribeca local since 1995. Another long-time resident and friend, who's kids go to PS 234 with mine, sold his loft last year, and has been leasing a place in the neighborhood instead. He's one of several people I know who sold and moved into a rental, in part because they believed the sales market had "peaked". These are folks who had built substantial equity over time in their properties. He sent me an email asking about the market. Here's my response, and a more detailed analysis on the downtown landscape for buyers.

continued »

May 19, 2008

Is it a good time to buy in Tribeca?

s some of you know, I've been a Tribeca local since 1995. Another long-time resident and friend, who's kids go to PS 234 with mine, sold his loft last year, and has been leasing a place in the neighborhood instead. He's one of several people I know who sold and moved into a rental, in part because they believed the sales market had "peaked". These are folks who had built substantial equity over time in their properties. He sent me an email asking about the market. Here's my response, and a more detailed analysis on the downtown landscape for buyers.

continued »

April 28, 2008

Its a real estate market!

The Manhattan market has been interesting recently. It is hard to characterize it as either a buyer's market, or a seller's market. Its just a real estate market, and a more balanced one than in the last few years.

continued »

January 25, 2008

The Corcoran Report 2007 Year End Wrap-up

Now available for download is the 2007 Year End Corcoran Report. It's a snapshot of the past year's tends in residential Manhattan real estate. It shows that sales continued to demonstrate strength last year, especially in luxury properties.

continued »

December 20, 2007

Manhattan real estate continues to defy gravity

"Last month, the number of closed sales just about matched the number closed in November 2006, and prices were considerably higher, but roughly flat compared with the prices in the previous quarter, according to a review of sales records filed with the city."

continued »

December 14, 2007

The London property echo

The story of London's property market seems to echo New York's right now. Central London and Manhattan have seen continued strength even as the wider regional markets trend downward.

continued »

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